Probability

Keeping Probabilities Honest: The Jacobian Adjustment

Introduction customer annoyance from wait times. Calls arrive randomly, so wait time X follows an Exponential distribution—most waits are short, just a few are painfully long. Now I’d argue that annoyance isn’t linear: a 10-minute...

“If LLM knows user information, the probability of persuasion is soaring … Web exposure information is enough”

If the factitious intelligence (AI) model knows the user's personal information, it has been revealed that it's an efficient persuasion strategy based on demographic basis. This shows that the massive language model (LLM) has...

From Physics to Probability: Hamiltonian Mechanics for Generative Modeling and MCMC

mechanics is a technique to describe how physical systems, like planets or pendulums, move over time, specializing in energy somewhat than simply forces. By reframing complex dynamics through energy lenses, this Nineteenth-century physics...

One Turn After One other

While some games, like rock-paper-scissors, only work if all payers choose their actions concurrently, other games, like chess or Monopoly, expect the players to take turns one after one other. In Game Theory, the...

When You Just Can’t Settle on a Single Motion

In Game Theory, the players typically need to make assumptions in regards to the other players’ actions. What is going to the opposite player do? Will he use rock, paper or scissors? You never...

Lessons from COVID-19: Why Probability Distributions Matter

Understanding Distributions with Extremes: Probability for Data Science Series (End)If you happen to should not a paid member on Medium, I make my stories available without spending a dime: Friends linkIf you happen to’ve...

Probability Distributions: Poisson vs. Binomial Distribution

Using soccer to grasp the difference between Poisson & binomial: Probability for Data Science Series (3)10 min read·Dec 10, 2024When you aren't a paid member on Medium, I make my stories available without spending...

Essential Guide to Continuous Ranked Probability Rating (CRPS) for Forecasting

Learn the right way to evaluate probabilistic forecasts and the way CRPS pertains to other metricsIf I asked you the right way to evaluate a regression problem, you'll probably name quite a couple of...

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