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Predict Creditworthiness with Python

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Predict Creditworthiness with Python

Creditworthiness in retail banking refers to a person’s ability to repay a loan or bank card balance. It measures an individual’s financial health and the likelihood of defaulting on a loan or other financial obligations.

Retail banks use quite a lot of aspects, including a person’s credit history, employment status, income level, debt-to-income ratio, and other financial obligations, to find out creditworthiness.

Simply put, good creditworthiness when applying for a loan or bank card can impact the rate of interest and other loan terms. A great credit rating might help individuals obtain lower rates of interest and higher terms, while a poor credit rating may end up in higher rates of interest and fewer favorable loan terms.

Well, they construct a . It’s a flowery way of claiming that Bankers apply and use machine learning for decision-making in finance.

we’d like to predict the creditworthiness of a borrower based on their characteristics, resembling income, age, credit rating, and employment history. The output of our model can be a probability rating indicating the likelihood of the borrower defaulting on their loan.

We’ve defined our problem statement. The subsequent challenge is to undergo a set of checklists and deploy our credit risk rating model:

We have now to gather data from various sources, resembling credit bureaus (Experian, Equifax, TransUnion. e.t.c), loan application forms, and public records. The information normally includes features of the borrower in addition to their credit history and loan repayment behavior.

Preprocess the information by handling missing values, encoding categorical variables, and scaling numerical variables. For instance, we are able to use one-hot encoding to convert categorical variables resembling employment history into numerical features that our model can use.

Split the preprocessed data into training and testing sets. We are able to use 80% of the information for training and 20% for testing.

Select an appropriate machine learning algorithm based on the issue and the available data. On this case, we are able to use logistic regression, a well-liked algorithm for binary classification problems like credit risk rating.

Train the logistic regression model using the training set. During training, the model learns the connection between the input features and the output variable, which on this case, is the borrower’s creditworthiness.

Evaluate the performance of the trained model using the testing set. We are able to use accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics to guage the model’s performance.

For our Python code, we are going to use two popular libraries, pandas and scikit-learn.

import pandas as pd
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, precision_score, recall_score, f1_score

# Load data
data = pd.read_csv('./data/borrowers_data.csv')

# Preprocess data
data = pd.get_dummies(data, columns=['employment_history'])
data = data.dropna()

# Split data into training and testing sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(data[['income', 'age', 'credit_score', 'employment_history_Employed', 'employment_history_Unemployed']],
data['credit_risk_rating'], test_size=0.2)

# Train logistic regression model
model = LogisticRegression()
model.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Evaluate model on test data
y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
print('Accuracy:', accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred))
print('Precision:', precision_score(y_test, y_pred))
print('Recall:', recall_score(y_test, y_pred))
print('F1-score:', f1_score(y_test, y_pred))

# Make predictions on latest data
new_data = pd.DataFrame({
'income': [50000, 70000],
'age': [35, 40],
'credit_score': [700, 800],
'employment_history_Employed': [1, 0],
'employment_history_Unemployed': [0, 1]
})
predictions = model.predict(new_data)
print('Predictions:', predictions)

Our CSV file named borrowers_data.csv comprises an example of information on borrowers’ credit characteristics. Here’s what’s within the file:

income,age,credit_score,employment_history,credit_risk_rating
50000,25,650,Employed,0
35000,30,600,Unemployed,1
60000,45,750,Employed,1
80000,40,800,Employed,1
45000,28,620,Employed,0
55000,35,700,Unemployed,1
70000,50,750,Employed,1

In the information above, each row represents a borrower and comprises the next columns:

  • : the borrower’s income in dollars.
  • : the borrower’s age in years.
  • : the borrower’s credit rating.
  • : the borrower’s employment history, a categorical variable that may tackle two values: ‘Employed’ or ‘Unemployed’.
  • : the borrower’s credit risk rating, a binary variable that may tackle two values: 0 for weak credit risk and 1 for good credit risk.

Here’s what’s within the file:

pandas
scikit-learn

├── creditworthiness.py
├── requirements.txt
└── data
└── borrowers_data.csv

python3 -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
pip3 install -r requirements.txt
python3 -m pip install --upgrade pip
python3 creditworthiness.py
deactivate

Accuracy: 0.85
Precision: 0.86
Recall: 0.83
F1-score: 0.84
Predictions: [1 1]

The output shows that the model achieved an accuracy of 0.85, meaning it classified 85% of the borrowers within the testing set. The precision of the model is 0.86, which suggests that of all of the borrowers that the model predicted pretty much as good credit risks, 86% were actually “” The recall of the model is 0.83, meaning that of all of the borrowers that were actually “”, the model accurately identified 83%. The F1-score of the model is 0.84, which is the Harmonic Precision-Recall Mean.

Moreover, the output show predictions on latest data. The model predicted each latest borrowers have “.”

After training the model, Bankers normally evaluate its performance on the testing set. They use various evaluation metrics, resembling accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Also, they use a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) to guage the model’s performance.

Finally, they use the trained model to predict the of latest borrowers based on their characteristics. They can even constantly update the model with latest data to enhance its performance and accuracy over time.

After all, what I shared above is an easy . A fancy one involves capturing additional datapoints from borrowers, resembling dependents, existing loans amount, duration of employment at current employer, and variety of defaults within the last 30–90 days. e.t.c. You get the purpose!

Keep making smart decisions along with your funds. 😉

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